Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-05-11 0.016532 0.018742 0.021144 0.023948 0.027134 0.030643 0.034803
2025-05-18 0.012932 0.015938 0.019490 0.024003 0.029591 0.036295 0.044964
2025-05-25 0.010768 0.014042 0.018137 0.023646 0.030878 0.040077 0.052703
2025-06-01 0.009519 0.013000 0.017563 0.023995 0.032859 0.044689 0.061749
2025-06-08 0.008389 0.011923 0.016743 0.023821 0.033991 0.048142 0.069446
2025-06-15 0.007751 0.011417 0.016601 0.024498 0.036283 0.053313 0.079969
2025-06-22 0.006804 0.010349 0.015526 0.023677 0.036260 0.055074 0.085574
2025-06-29 0.006141 0.009622 0.014861 0.023364 0.036913 0.057825 0.092856
2025-07-06 0.005461 0.008794 0.013953 0.022566 0.036698 0.059161 0.097957
2025-07-13 0.005221 0.008634 0.014060 0.023372 0.039091 0.064803 0.110549
2025-07-20 0.004959 0.008409 0.014034 0.023942 0.041125 0.070003 0.122852
2025-07-27 0.004734 0.008222 0.014048 0.024567 0.043286 0.075574 0.136284
2025-08-03 0.004368 0.007766 0.013579 0.024334 0.043967 0.078713 0.145817
2025-08-10 0.004077 0.007417 0.013267 0.024352 0.045098 0.082751 0.157410
2025-08-17 0.003759 0.006991 0.012775 0.023991 0.045486 0.085446 0.166693
2025-08-24 0.003575 0.006792 0.012677 0.024346 0.047236 0.090810 0.181627
2025-08-31 0.003337 0.006469 0.012319 0.024169 0.047937 0.094213 0.192968
2025-09-07 0.003227 0.006385 0.012404 0.024857 0.050394 0.101245 0.212354
2025-09-14 0.002948 0.005940 0.011755 0.024023 0.049700 0.101901 0.218474
2025-09-21 0.002751 0.005647 0.011378 0.023705 0.050032 0.104661 0.229317
2025-09-28 0.002520 0.005263 0.010789 0.022895 0.049251 0.105020 0.234924
2025-10-05 0.002470 0.005253 0.010963 0.023713 0.052033 0.113191 0.258746
2025-10-12 0.002399 0.005191 0.011025 0.024292 0.054338 0.120518 0.281344